
%%%%%  TO DO
% Shaun's comments
% I also think you can strengthen the argument for looking at NZ by
%talking up how NZ was always one of Lijphart's main cases
%
%oh.. may have missed it but.. my query is what about the reserved seats for
%Maoris ? How are they included/excluded (I would expect them to behave very
%differently)

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\title{\LARGE\bf FIGURES: Luck of the Draw? \\
\large Members' Bills \& the Electoral Connection
\\[36pt]}

\author{Brian D. Williams \\ University of West Florida \vspace{.4cm} \\
Indridi H. Indridason\thanks{Department of Political Science, 900 University
Avenue, University of California, Riverside.
%Riverside, CA 92521, USA. \textit{e}-mail: {\tt indridi.indridason@ucr.edu}.
We would like
to thank Hannah Blumhardt for capable research assistance and Shaun Bowler,
Jack Vowles, and the anonymous referees
for useful comments and suggestions.
    }
\\University of California, Riverside \\[22pt]
%\sc \small Work in progress \\
%\sc \footnotesize Please do not cite without permission
}


\begin{document}
\onehalfspacing

\thispagestyle{empty} \maketitle

\thispagestyle{empty}

%\clearpage

\begin{abstract}
\noindent The legislative agenda in most parliamentary systems is controlled tightly by the government and bills offered by individual members of parliament have low rates of success.  Yet, MPs do seek to present (private) members' bills even where the rate of adoption is very low. We argue that members' bills serve as an electoral connection but also as an opportunity for MPs to signal
competence  to their co-partisans.  To demonstrate the presence of an electoral
connection we take advantage of the random selection of private members' bills in the New Zealand House of Representatives and show that survey respondents approve more of electorate MPs whose bills were drawn on the ballot.
In addition, we show that MPs respond to the incentives created by the voters
and parties' willingness to reward legislative effort and, consequently, that
electorally vulnerable legislators are more likely to place members' bills on
the ballot.
\end{abstract}

 \thispagestyle{empty}

\pagestyle{fancy}
 \lhead{\bfseries} \chead{} \rhead{\it Luck of the Draw} \lfoot{}
 \cfoot{\thepage} \rfoot{}
\renewcommand{\headrulewidth}{0.4pt}
\renewcommand{\footrulewidth}{0pt}

\clearpage

\parskip=3pt

%%%%%%%%%%%% FIGURE 1

\begin{figure}
    {\sc\caption{ \sc Share of Opportunities to Enter Bill Used$^*$ \\ \small
    ---By Government Party Membership---} \label{fig:bygovt}}
  \pgfplotstableread[col sep=comma]{hist_attemptNEW.csv}\loadedtable
\begin{center}
\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=1]
%\pgfplotsset{tick label style={font=\small}}
\begin{axis}[
        xtick={0,...,12},
        yticklabels={,0,50\%,100\%},
    axis x line=bottom,
    axis y line=left,
    height=.4\textwidth,
    width=0.4\textwidth,
    bar width=12pt,
    xticklabels={,\sc \scriptsize Total, \sc \scriptsize Unique},
    font=\scriptsize,
    clip=false,
    ymajorgrids,
    yminorgrids,
    xmin=.5,xmax=2.5,ymax=1.1,ymin=0,
    ylabel=\sc \% of Ballots,
    ybar,
    xtick align=inside,
    ylabel near ticks,
    xlabel near ticks
    ]
    \addplot+[color=red!50!black][] coordinates
        {(1,.2040) (2,.0407)};
    \addplot+[color=red!50!black!50!white][] coordinates
        {(1,.8496) (2,.196)};
    \addplot+[color=red!50!black!30!white][] coordinates
        {(1,.4572) (2,.09)};
    \fill[fill=red!50!black] (axis cs:2.6,.85) rectangle (axis cs:3,.95)
    node[midway,right=12pt]{\sc \tiny Government};
    \fill[fill=red!50!black!50!white] (axis cs:2.6,.7) rectangle (axis
    cs:3,.8) node[midway,right=12pt]{\sc \tiny Support};
    \fill[fill=red!50!black!30!white] (axis cs:2.6,.55) rectangle (axis
    cs:3,.65) node[midway,right=12pt]{\sc \tiny Opposition};
\end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{center}\vspace{-.3cm}
\tiny{~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~*Excludes Ministers, House Leaders, and All Speakers.}

\tiny{~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~\textsc{Source: }New Zealand
Parliament (\url{www.parliament.nz})}
\end{figure}

%%%%%%%%%%%% FIGURE 2

\begin{figure}
    {\sc\caption{ \sc Bills Placed on the Ballot By MP \\ \small ---Total Number
    of Bills \& Unique Bills---} \label{fig:billattempt}}
  \pgfplotstableread[col sep=comma]{hist_attemptNEW.csv}\loadedtable
\begin{center}
\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=1]
%\pgfplotsset{tick label style={font=\small}}
\begin{axis}[
%        ytick={1,...,9},
        xtick={0,...,18},
%        xmin=0,
%        xlabel={\sc Responsibility },
%        yticklabels={%
%    enlargelimits=0.5
    axis x line=bottom,
    axis y line=left,
    height=.4\textwidth,
    width=0.9\textwidth,
    bar width=6pt,
%    xticklabels={,,1990,1992,...,2014},
    yticklabels={0,0,20,40,60},
    font=\scriptsize,
    clip=false,
    ymajorgrids,
    yminorgrids,
    ylabel=\sc Number of MPs,
    xlabel=\sc Number of Bills,
    xmin=.5,xmax=18.5,ymax=71,ymin=0,
%        axis x line*=bottom,
%        axis y line*=center,
    ybar,
    xtick align=inside,
    ylabel near ticks,
    xlabel near ticks
    ]
    \addplot+[color=red!50!black][] table[x=no,y=attempts1]\loadedtable;
    \addplot+[color=red!50!black!50!white][] table[x=no,y=unique1]\loadedtable;

    \filldraw[fill=white, draw=white] (axis cs:1.25+.72,63) -- (axis cs:1.43+.72,63.25) -- (axis
    cs:1.56+.72,62.75) -- (axis cs:1.75+.72,63) -- (axis cs:1.75+.72,61.25) -- (axis cs:1.56+.72,61) -- (axis
    cs:1.43+.72,61.5)-- (axis cs:1.25+.72,61.25);
    \draw[] (axis cs:1.25+.72,63) -- (axis cs:1.43+.72,63.25) -- (axis
    cs:1.56+.72,62.75) -- (axis cs:1.75+.72,63);
    \draw (axis cs:1.75+.72,61.25) -- (axis cs:1.56+.72,61) -- (axis
    cs:1.43+.72,61.5)-- (axis cs:1.25+.72,61.25);

    \filldraw[fill=white, draw=white] (axis cs:1.25-.28,66) -- (axis cs:1.43-.28,66.25) -- (axis
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    \draw[] (axis cs:1.25-.28,66) -- (axis cs:1.43-.28,66.25) -- (axis
    cs:1.56-.28,65.75) -- (axis cs:1.75-.28,66);
    \draw (axis cs:1.75-.28,64.25) -- (axis cs:1.56-.28,64) -- (axis
    cs:1.43-.28,64.5)-- (axis cs:1.25-.28,64.25);

    \draw[very thick] (axis cs:1.24,70) node[above=-0pt]{\tiny 153};
    \draw[very thick] (axis cs:2.24,65) node[above=-0pt]{\tiny 83};
    \fill[fill=red!50!black] (axis cs:15.5,52) rectangle (axis cs:16.5,55)
    node[midway,right=12pt]{\sc \tiny Total Number};
    \fill[fill=red!50!black!50!white] (axis cs:15.5,47) rectangle (axis
    cs:16.5,50) node[midway,right=12pt]{\sc \tiny Unique Bills};
\end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{center}\vspace{-.3cm}
\tiny{~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~\textsc{Source: }New Zealand Parliament
(\url{www.parliament.nz})}
\end{figure}

%%%%%%%%%%%% FIGURE 3

\begin{figure}
    {\sc\caption{ \sc Vote Margin and Placing Bills on the Ballot } \label{fig:votemargin}}
  \pgfplotstableread[col sep=comma]{margin_graph_by_placedballots.csv}\loadedtable
\begin{center}
\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=1]
%\pgfplotsset{tick label style={font=\small}}
\begin{axis}[
%        ytick={1,...,9},
%        xtick={0,...,18},
%        xmin=0,
%        xlabel={\sc Responsibility },
%        yticklabels={%
%    enlargelimits=0.5
    axis x line=bottom,
    axis y line=left,
    height=.4\textwidth,
    width=0.9\textwidth,
%    ybar interval=0.7,
    bar width=2pt,
%    xticklabels={,,1990,1992,...,2014},
    yticklabels={0,0,1,2},
    font=\scriptsize,
    clip=false,
    ymajorgrids,
    yminorgrids,
    ylabel=\sc Placed Ballots (\%),
    xlabel=\sc Vote Margin (SMD),
%    xmin=-34,xmax=55,
    xmax=.67,
%    ymin=0,
%        axis x line*=bottom,
%        axis y line*=center,
    ybar,
    xtick align=inside,
    ylabel near ticks,
    xlabel near ticks
    ]
    \addplot+[color=red!50!black!50!white][] table[x=xm0,y=distm0]\loadedtable;
    \addplot+[color=red!50!black][] table[x=xm1,y=distm1]\loadedtable;
%    \draw[very thick] (axis cs:1.24,70) node[above=-0pt]{\tiny 151};
%    \draw[very thick] (axis cs:2.24,65) node[above=-0pt]{\tiny 83};
    \fill[fill=red!50!black] (axis cs:.35,1.75) rectangle (axis cs:.43,1.8)
    node[midway,right=12pt]{\sc \tiny Placed Bill};
    \fill[fill=red!50!black!50!white] (axis cs:.35,1.6) rectangle (axis
    cs:.43,1.65) node[midway,right=12pt]{\sc \tiny Did Not Place Bill};
\end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{center}\vspace{-.3cm}
\tiny{~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~\textsc{Source: }New Zealand Parliament
(\url{www.parliament.nz})}
\end{figure}

%%%%%%%%%%%% FIGURE 4

\begin{figure}
    {\sc\caption{ \sc List Safety and Placing Bills on the Ballot } \label{fig:listmargin}}
  \pgfplotstableread[col sep=comma]{list_graph_by_placedballots.csv}\loadedtable
\begin{center}
\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=1]
%\pgfplotsset{tick label style={font=\small}}
\begin{axis}[
%        ytick={1,...,9},
%        xtick={0,...,18},
%        xmin=0,
%        xlabel={\sc Responsibility },
%        yticklabels={%
%    enlargelimits=0.5
    axis x line=bottom,
    axis y line=left,
    height=.4\textwidth,
    width=0.9\textwidth,
    scaled ticks=false,
%    ybar interval=0.7,
    bar width=2pt,
%    xticklabels={,,1990,1992,...,2014},
    yticklabels={0,0,2,4,6,8},
    font=\scriptsize,
    clip=false,
    ymajorgrids,
    yminorgrids,
    ylabel=\sc Placed Ballots (\%),
    xlabel=\sc List Safety,
    xmin=-34,xmax=57,
%    ymax=57,
%   ymin=0,
%        axis x line*=bottom,
%        axis y line*=center,
    ybar,
    xtick align=inside,
    ylabel near ticks,
    xlabel near ticks
    ]
    \addplot+[color=red!50!black!50!white][] table[x=x0,y=distlm0]\loadedtable;
    \addplot+[color=red!50!black][] table[x=x1,y=distlm1]\loadedtable;
%    \draw[very thick] (axis cs:1.24,70) node[above=-0pt]{\tiny 151};
%    \draw[very thick] (axis cs:2.24,65) node[above=-0pt]{\tiny 83};
    \fill[fill=red!50!black] (axis cs:30,.073) rectangle (axis cs:35,.075)
    node[midway,right=12pt]{\sc \tiny Placed Bill};
    \fill[fill=red!50!black!50!white] (axis cs:30,.068) rectangle (axis
    cs:35,.07) node[midway,right=12pt]{\sc \tiny Did Not Place Bill};
\end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{center}\vspace{-.3cm}
\tiny{~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~\textsc{Source: }New Zealand Parliament
(\url{www.parliament.nz})}
\end{figure}



%%%%% w/seniority data
\begin{figure}
\centering
\begin{subfigure}{.5\textwidth}
  \centering
%\includegraphics[width=9cm]{policy_m_seat.png}
\pgfplotstableread[col sep=comma]{margins_m_lm_sen.csv"}\loadedtable \pgfplotsset{ tick
    label style={font=\footnotesize}, label style={font=\small}, legend
    style={font=\footnotesize} }
\begin{center}
%{\sc ~~~~~~~~ Marginal Effect of Portfolio Share sd} \vspace{.7cm}
  \begin{tikzpicture}[scale=.80]
\begin{axis}[
%        ytick={0,10,...,60},
%        xtick={0.5,1.5,...,6.5},
        xlabel={\sc List Safety },
        ylabel={\sc $\Delta$Bill Attempts},
%        ylabel={\sc $\Delta$Length: Policy},
%        yticklabels={%
%    enlargelimits=0.5
%    grid=major,
    height=.7\textwidth,
    width=1.2\textwidth,
    bar width=9pt,
%    xticklabels={2002,...,2012},
%    yticklabels={,-5\%,0,5\%},
    font=\tiny,
%    ymajorgrids,
%    yminorgrids,
    xmin=-36,xmax=36,
    ymin=-1.3,ymax=.6,
%        axis x line*=bottom,
%        axis y line*=center,
    xtick align=inside,
    y tick label style={
        /pgf/number format/.cd,
        fixed,
        fixed zerofill,
        precision=1},
    ]
    \addplot+[color=white!70!black,no markers,thick][] table[x=listmargin,y=m_m]\loadedtable;
    \addplot+[color=white!70!black,dashed,no markers,thick][] table[x=listmargin,y=m_m_u]\loadedtable;
    \addplot+[color=white!70!black,dashed,no markers,thick][] table[x=listmargin,y=m_m_l]\loadedtable;
    \addplot[mark=none, black, very thin] coordinates {(-40,0) (40,0)};
%    \draw[] (axis cs:0.5,0) -- (axis cs:6.5,0);
%    \draw[very thick,arrows={-stealth}] (axis cs:2009.2,10) -- (axis
%cs:2012.5,10) node[midway,above=-1pt]{\tiny SDA-LM} ;
\end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{center}
  \caption{\small \sc Marginal Effect of SMD Safety \\ {\footnotesize --- Conditional on List Safety ---} }
  \label{fig:p2}
\end{subfigure}%
\begin{subfigure}{.5\textwidth}
  \centering
%\includegraphics[width=9cm]{policy_m_ideol.png}
\begin{center}
%{\sc ~~~~~~~~~~~ Marginal Effect of Ideological Distance} \vspace{.7cm}
 \pgfplotstableread[col sep=comma]{margins_m_lm_sen.csv}\loadedtable \pgfplotsset{
tick
    label style={font=\footnotesize}, label style={font=\small}, legend
    style={font=\footnotesize} }
\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=.80]
\begin{axis}[
%       ytick={-.01,-.005,0,.005},
%        xtick={0,.1,...,.55},
        scaled ticks=false,
        xlabel={\sc SMD Safety},
%        ylabel={\sc $\Delta$Bill Attempts},
%        yticklabels={%
%    enlargelimits=0.5
%    grid=major,
    height=.7\textwidth,
    width=1.2\textwidth,
    bar width=9pt,
%    xticklabels={2002,...,2012},
    y tick label style={
        /pgf/number format/.cd,
        fixed,
        fixed zerofill,
        precision=3},
%    yticklabels={,-.010,-.005,0},
    font=\tiny,
%    ymajorgrids,
%    yminorgrids,
    xmin=-.36,xmax=.36,
    ymin=-.014,ymax=.006,
%        axis x line*=bottom,
%        axis y line*=center,
    xtick align=inside
    ]
    \addplot+[color=white!70!black,no markers,thick][] table[x=margin,y=m_lm]\loadedtable;
    \addplot+[color=white!70!black,dashed,no markers,thick][] table[x=margin,y=m_lm_u]\loadedtable;
    \addplot+[color=white!70!black,dashed,no markers,thick][] table[x=margin,y=m_lm_l]\loadedtable;
    \addplot[mark=none, black, very thin] coordinates {(-.40,0) (.40,0)};
%    \draw[] (axis cs:-.35,0) -- (axis cs:.35,0);
%    \draw[white, thick] (axis cs:.23,-8) node[below]{\sc Portfolio Share sd};
%    \draw[very thick,arrows={-stealth}] (axis cs:2009.2,10) -- (axis
%cs:2012.5,10) node[midway,above=-1pt]{\tiny SDA-LM} ;
\end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{center}
  \caption{\small \sc  Marginal Effect of List Safety \\ {\footnotesize --- Conditional on SMD Safety ---}}
  \label{fig:p1}
\end{subfigure}%
\caption{The Effect of List \& SMD Safety on the Number of Attempts}
\label{fig:policy}
\end{figure}



\begin{figure}
\pgfplotstableread[col sep=comma]{app_PSRM.csv}\loadedtable \pgfplotsset{ tick
    label style={font=\footnotesize}, label style={font=\small}, legend
    style={font=\footnotesize} }
\begin{center}
\caption{Predicted Respondent Approval of MP \\ \small ---Conditional on Number
of Bills Drawn---}
\label{fig:pr_ologit} \vspace{.2cm}

\begin{tikzpicture}[scale=.75]
\begin{axis}[
%        ytick={0,10,...,60},
        xtick={1,2,...,5},
        ylabel={\sc Pr(Approve)},
        xlabel={\sc Approval},
%        yticklabels={%
%    enlargelimits=0.5
%    grid=major,
    height=.7\textwidth,
    width=1.2\textwidth,
    bar width=9pt,
    ybar,
    xticklabels={Strongly Disapprove,Somewhat Disapprove,Neither,Somewhat
    Approve,Strongly Approve},
    yticklabels={0,0,10\%,20\%,30\%,40\%},
    font=\tiny,
    ymajorgrids,
    yminorgrids,
%    xmin=0.5,xmax=5.5,
%        axis x line*=bottom,
%        axis y line*=center,
    xtick align=inside
    ]
    \addplot+[color=white!70!black,no markers][] table[x=app,y=d1]\loadedtable;
    \addplot+[color=red!50!black!50!white,no markers][]
    table[x=app,y=d2]\loadedtable;
    \addplot+[color=red!50!black,no markers][] table[x=app,y=d3]\loadedtable;
%    \addplot+[color=white!70!black,dashed,no markers][] table[x=drawn,y=app4]\loadedtable;
%    \addplot+[color=white!70!black,dashed,no markers][] table[x=drawn,y=app5]\loadedtable;
%    \draw[white, thick] (axis cs:0.5,0) -- (axis cs:6.5,0);
    \fill[fill=white!70!black] (axis cs:.75,.36) rectangle (axis cs:1.1,.373)
    node[midway,right=22pt]{\sc \scriptsize Drawn=0};
    \fill[fill=red!50!black!50!white] (axis cs:.75,.32) rectangle (axis
    cs:1.1,.333) node[midway,right=22pt]{\sc \scriptsize Drawn=1};
    \fill[fill=red!50!black] (axis cs:.75,.28) rectangle (axis cs:1.1,.293)
    node[midway,right=22pt]{\sc \scriptsize Drawn=2};
%    \draw[very thick,arrows={-stealth}] (axis cs:2009.2,10) -- (axis
%cs:2012.5,10) node[midway,above=-1pt]{\tiny SDA-LM} ;
\end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{center}
\end{figure}


\end{document}
